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2020 House · NH-1

Saint Anselm College Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 560 respondents · Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 44%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.32% · Republican 46.21%

D+5.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 44 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.317 − 46.213 = 5.104
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (5.104) = -0.103
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.103| = 0.103

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72233, race ID 8075 (538 database).