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2020 President · NH

Saint Anselm College Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 1,018 respondents · Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 44%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.71% · Republican 45.36%

D+7.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 44 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.708 − 45.356 = 7.352
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (7.352) = 0.647
  4. Absolute miss = |0.647| = 0.647

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72233, race ID 6241 (538 database).