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2020 House · NH-2

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 412 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 41%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.90% · Republican 43.70%

D+10.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 41 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.899 − 43.703 = 10.196
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (10.196) = -0.196
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.196| = 0.196

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72230, race ID 8076 (538 database).