Skip to content

2020 House · NH-1

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 451 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 50%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.32% · Republican 46.21%

D+5.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 50 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.317 − 46.213 = 5.104
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (5.104) = -7.103
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.103| = 7.103

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72230, race ID 8075 (538 database).