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2020 President · national

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 1,726 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50.9% · Republican 46.2%

D+4.7

The certified result

Democrat 51.07% · Republican 46.67%

D+4.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.9 − 46.2 = 4.70
  2. Actual margin = 51.068 − 46.672 = 4.396
  3. Signed miss = 4.70 − (4.396) = 0.304
  4. Absolute miss = |0.304| = 0.304

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72216, race ID 6210 (538 database).