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2020 Senate · NC

University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion · fieldwork ended 2020-10-23 (11 days before the election) · 911 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 45%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.94% · Republican 48.69%

R+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 45 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.940 − 48.687 = -1.747
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (-1.747) = 5.747
  4. Absolute miss = |5.747| = 5.747

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72207, race ID 6284 (538 database).