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2020 Senate · GA

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 661 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 44%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.95% · Republican 49.73%

R+1.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 44 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.949 − 49.728 = -1.779
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (-1.779) = 4.779
  4. Absolute miss = |4.779| = 4.779

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72187, race ID 6271 (538 database).