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2020 President · GA

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 661 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 46%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.47% · Republican 49.24%

D+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 46 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.473 − 49.237 = 0.236
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (0.236) = 1.764
  4. Absolute miss = |1.764| = 1.764

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72187, race ID 6221 (538 database).