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2020 Senate · TX

Citizen Data · fieldwork ended 2020-10-19 (15 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 40.62% · Republican 40.82%

R+0.2

The certified result

Democrat 43.87% · Republican 53.51%

R+9.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40.62 − 40.82 = -0.20
  2. Actual margin = 43.869 − 53.508 = -9.639
  3. Signed miss = -0.20 − (-9.639) = 9.439
  4. Absolute miss = |9.439| = 9.439

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72186, race ID 6295 (538 database).