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2020 President · OH

Citizen Data · fieldwork ended 2020-10-19 (15 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 43.2% · Republican 44.41%

R+1.2

The certified result

Democrat 45.24% · Republican 53.27%

R+8.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.2 − 44.41 = -1.21
  2. Actual margin = 45.239 − 53.271 = -8.032
  3. Signed miss = -1.21 − (-8.032) = 6.822
  4. Absolute miss = |6.822| = 6.822

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72184, race ID 6246 (538 database).