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2020 President · MI

Citizen Data · fieldwork ended 2020-10-19 (15 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 49.5% · Republican 41.36%

D+8.1

The certified result

Democrat 50.62% · Republican 47.84%

D+2.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.5 − 41.36 = 8.14
  2. Actual margin = 50.621 − 47.837 = 2.784
  3. Signed miss = 8.14 − (2.784) = 5.356
  4. Absolute miss = |5.356| = 5.356

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72182, race ID 6233 (538 database).