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2020 Senate · GA

Citizen Data · fieldwork ended 2020-10-19 (15 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 47.3% · Republican 40.44%

D+6.9

The certified result

Democrat 47.95% · Republican 49.73%

R+1.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.3 − 40.44 = 6.86
  2. Actual margin = 47.949 − 49.728 = -1.779
  3. Signed miss = 6.86 − (-1.779) = 8.639
  4. Absolute miss = |8.639| = 8.639

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72181, race ID 6271 (538 database).