Skip to content

2020 President · ME

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 1,007 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 40%

D+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.09% · Republican 44.02%

D+9.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 40 = 13.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.092 − 44.021 = 9.071
  3. Signed miss = 13.00 − (9.071) = 3.929
  4. Absolute miss = |3.929| = 3.929

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72179, race ID 6232 (538 database).