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2020 President · MI

Mitchell Research & Communications · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 759 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 52.4% · Republican 42%

D+10.4

The certified result

Democrat 50.62% · Republican 47.84%

D+2.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52.4 − 42 = 10.40
  2. Actual margin = 50.621 − 47.837 = 2.784
  3. Signed miss = 10.40 − (2.784) = 7.616
  4. Absolute miss = |7.616| = 7.616

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72170, race ID 6233 (538 database).