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2020 Senate · KS

GBAO · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 45%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.79% · Republican 53.22%

R+11.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 45 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.786 − 53.223 = -11.437
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-11.437) = 12.437
  4. Absolute miss = |12.437| = 12.437

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72165, race ID 6275 (538 database).