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2020 President · national

SSRS · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 886 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 42%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.07% · Republican 46.67%

D+4.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 42 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.068 − 46.672 = 4.396
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (4.396) = 7.604
  4. Absolute miss = |7.604| = 7.604

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72160, race ID 6210 (538 database).