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2020 Senate · SC

East Carolina University Center for Survey Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-24 (10 days before the election) · 763 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47.44% · Republican 49.28%

R+1.8

The certified result

Democrat 44.17% · Republican 54.44%

R+10.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.44 − 49.28 = -1.84
  2. Actual margin = 44.166 − 54.437 = -10.271
  3. Signed miss = -1.84 − (-10.271) = 8.430
  4. Absolute miss = |8.430| = 8.430

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72157, race ID 6292 (538 database).