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2020 President · national

GBAO · fieldwork ended 2020-10-17 (17 days before the election) · 1,150 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 40%

D+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.07% · Republican 46.67%

D+4.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 40 = 13.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.068 − 46.672 = 4.396
  3. Signed miss = 13.00 − (4.396) = 8.604
  4. Absolute miss = |8.604| = 8.604

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72154, race ID 6210 (538 database).