2020 Senate · GA
Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 504 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 48%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.95% · Republican 49.73%
R+1.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 48 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 47.949 − 49.728 = -1.779
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (-1.779) = 2.779
- Absolute miss = |2.779| = 2.779
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.8 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72146, race ID 6271 (538 database).