2020 Governor · NC
Harper Polling · fieldwork ended 2020-10-24 (10 days before the election) · 504 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 42%
D+10.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.52% · Republican 47.01%
D+4.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 42 = 10.00
- Actual margin = 51.516 − 47.005 = 4.511
- Signed miss = 10.00 − (4.511) = 5.490
- Absolute miss = |5.490| = 5.490
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72139, race ID 7824 (538 database).