2020 House · AZ-6
Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 582 respondents · IVR/Text · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 45% · Republican 41%
D+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.83% · Republican 52.17%
R+4.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45 − 41 = 4.00
- Actual margin = 47.827 − 52.173 = -4.346
- Signed miss = 4.00 − (-4.346) = 8.345
- Absolute miss = |8.345| = 8.345
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.3 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72085, race ID 7842 (538 database).