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2020 House · CA-50

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2020-10-24 (10 days before the election) · 538 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 51%

R+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.05% · Republican 53.95%

R+7.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 51 = -11.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.047 − 53.953 = -7.906
  3. Signed miss = -11.00 − (-7.906) = -3.094
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.094| = 3.094

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72072, race ID 7899 (538 database).