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2020 President · national

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 1,121 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50.9% · Republican 46.7%

D+4.2

The certified result

Democrat 51.07% · Republican 46.67%

D+4.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.9 − 46.7 = 4.20
  2. Actual margin = 51.068 − 46.672 = 4.396
  3. Signed miss = 4.20 − (4.396) = -0.196
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.196| = 0.196

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72070, race ID 6210 (538 database).