2020 Governor · NC
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 637 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 42%
D+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.52% · Republican 47.01%
D+4.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 42 = 11.00
- Actual margin = 51.516 − 47.005 = 4.511
- Signed miss = 11.00 − (4.511) = 6.490
- Absolute miss = |6.490| = 6.490
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72061, race ID 7824 (538 database).