Skip to content

2020 Governor · IN

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2020-10-22 (12 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 28.5% · Republican 46.8%

R+18.3

The certified result

Democrat 32.05% · Republican 56.51%

R+24.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 28.5 − 46.8 = -18.30
  2. Actual margin = 32.052 − 56.507 = -24.455
  3. Signed miss = -18.30 − (-24.455) = 6.155
  4. Absolute miss = |6.155| = 6.155

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72045, race ID 7819 (538 database).