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2020 Senate · MS

Civiqs · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 507 respondents · Online Panel/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 52%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.13% · Republican 54.10%

R+10.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 52 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.129 − 54.105 = -9.976
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-9.976) = 1.976
  4. Absolute miss = |1.976| = 1.976

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72041, race ID 6282 (538 database).