2020 President · MS
Civiqs · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 507 respondents · Online Panel/Online Ad
The poll said
Democrat 41% · Republican 55%
R+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.06% · Republican 57.60%
R+16.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 41 − 55 = -14.00
- Actual margin = 41.058 − 57.603 = -16.545
- Signed miss = -14.00 − (-16.545) = 2.545
- Absolute miss = |2.545| = 2.545
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72041, race ID 6236 (538 database).