2020 Senate · GA
Civiqs · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 1,041 respondents · Online Panel/Online Ad
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 45%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.95% · Republican 49.73%
R+1.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 45 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 47.949 − 49.728 = -1.779
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (-1.779) = 7.779
- Absolute miss = |7.779| = 7.779
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.8 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72040, race ID 6271 (538 database).