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2020 House · NY-11

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-20 (14 days before the election) · 650 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 48%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.90% · Republican 48.90%

R+3.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 48 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.898 − 48.896 = -2.998
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-2.998) = 0.998
  4. Absolute miss = |0.998| = 0.998

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71974, race ID 8102 (538 database).