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2020 Senate · TX

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2020-10-17 (17 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 41.6% · Republican 48.9%

R+7.3

The certified result

Democrat 43.87% · Republican 53.51%

R+9.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41.6 − 48.9 = -7.30
  2. Actual margin = 43.869 − 53.508 = -9.639
  3. Signed miss = -7.30 − (-9.639) = 2.339
  4. Absolute miss = |2.339| = 2.339

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71955, race ID 6295 (538 database).