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2020 President · TX

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2020-10-17 (17 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44.7% · Republican 50%

R+5.3

The certified result

Democrat 46.48% · Republican 52.06%

R+5.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.7 − 50 = -5.30
  2. Actual margin = 46.479 − 52.058 = -5.579
  3. Signed miss = -5.30 − (-5.579) = 0.279
  4. Absolute miss = |0.279| = 0.279

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71955, race ID 6254 (538 database).