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2020 Senate · GA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2020-10-22 (12 days before the election) · 1,090 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 47%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.95% · Republican 49.73%

R+1.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 47 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.949 − 49.728 = -1.779
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-1.779) = 0.779
  4. Absolute miss = |0.779| = 0.779

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71888, race ID 6271 (538 database).