Skip to content

2020 President · national

TIPP Insights · fieldwork ended 2020-10-21 (13 days before the election) · 1,029 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50.7% · Republican 44.3%

D+6.4

The certified result

Democrat 51.07% · Republican 46.67%

D+4.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.7 − 44.3 = 6.40
  2. Actual margin = 51.068 − 46.672 = 4.396
  3. Signed miss = 6.40 − (4.396) = 2.004
  4. Absolute miss = |2.004| = 2.004

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71821, race ID 6210 (538 database).