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2020 Senate · GA

Landmark Communications · fieldwork ended 2020-10-21 (13 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44.6% · Republican 50.2%

R+5.6

The certified result

Democrat 47.95% · Republican 49.73%

R+1.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.6 − 50.2 = -5.60
  2. Actual margin = 47.949 − 49.728 = -1.779
  3. Signed miss = -5.60 − (-1.779) = -3.821
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.821| = 3.821

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71763, race ID 6271 (538 database).