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2020 Senate · AZ

Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. · fieldwork ended 2020-10-21 (13 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 50%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.16% · Republican 48.81%

D+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 50 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.157 − 48.808 = 2.349
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (2.349) = -5.349
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.349| = 5.349

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71750, race ID 6268 (538 database).