2020 President · MI
EPIC-MRA · fieldwork ended 2020-10-17 (17 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 39%
D+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.62% · Republican 47.84%
D+2.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 39 = 9.00
- Actual margin = 50.621 − 47.837 = 2.784
- Signed miss = 9.00 − (2.784) = 6.216
- Absolute miss = |6.216| = 6.216
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71738, race ID 6233 (538 database).