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2020 Senate · KY

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2020-10-19 (15 days before the election) · 640 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text-to-Web · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 39.9% · Republican 50.2%

R+10.3

The certified result

Democrat 38.23% · Republican 57.77%

R+19.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39.9 − 50.2 = -10.30
  2. Actual margin = 38.231 − 57.765 = -19.534
  3. Signed miss = -10.30 − (-19.534) = 9.234
  4. Absolute miss = |9.234| = 9.234

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71672, race ID 6276 (538 database).