2020 House · IA-4
Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2020-10-17 (17 days before the election) · 414 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 47%
R+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 37.79% · Republican 61.97%
R+24.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 47 = -3.00
- Actual margin = 37.794 − 61.973 = -24.179
- Signed miss = -3.00 − (-24.179) = 21.178
- Absolute miss = |21.178| = 21.178
The poll overstated the Democrat by 21.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71671, race ID 7991 (538 database).