2020 House · IA-2
Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2020-10-17 (17 days before the election) · 355 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 54% · Republican 41%
D+13.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.91% · Republican 49.91%
even
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 54 − 41 = 13.00
- Actual margin = 49.910 − 49.912 = -0.002
- Signed miss = 13.00 − (-0.002) = 13.002
- Absolute miss = |13.002| = 13.002
The poll overstated the Democrat by 13.0 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71671, race ID 7989 (538 database).