Skip to content

2020 Senate · MN

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2020-10-18 (16 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 42%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.74% · Republican 43.50%

D+5.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 42 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.737 − 43.498 = 5.239
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (5.239) = -4.238
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.238| = 4.238

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71632, race ID 6281 (538 database).