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2020 President · GA

Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group · fieldwork ended 2020-10-13 (21 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 44%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.47% · Republican 49.24%

D+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 44 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.473 − 49.237 = 0.236
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (0.236) = 6.764
  4. Absolute miss = |6.764| = 6.764

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71566, race ID 6221 (538 database).