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2020 President · WI

Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. · fieldwork ended 2020-10-18 (16 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 45%

even

The certified result

Democrat 49.45% · Republican 48.82%

D+0.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 45 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.450 − 48.822 = 0.628
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (0.628) = -0.627
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.627| = 0.627

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.6 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71559, race ID 6259 (538 database).