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2020 Governor · MO

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2020-10-19 (15 days before the election) · 600 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text-to-Web · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 41.5% · Republican 48.1%

R+6.6

The certified result

Democrat 40.69% · Republican 57.11%

R+16.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41.5 − 48.1 = -6.60
  2. Actual margin = 40.692 − 57.106 = -16.414
  3. Signed miss = -6.60 − (-16.414) = 9.814
  4. Absolute miss = |9.814| = 9.814

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71554, race ID 7820 (538 database).