Skip to content

2020 Senate · MN

Civiqs · fieldwork ended 2020-10-19 (15 days before the election) · 840 respondents · Online Panel/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 43%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.74% · Republican 43.50%

D+5.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 43 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.737 − 43.498 = 5.239
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (5.239) = 5.762
  4. Absolute miss = |5.762| = 5.762

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71539, race ID 6281 (538 database).