2020 President · NV
Civiqs · fieldwork ended 2020-10-19 (15 days before the election) · 712 respondents · Online Panel/Online Ad
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 43%
D+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.06% · Republican 47.67%
D+2.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 43 = 9.00
- Actual margin = 50.057 − 47.666 = 2.391
- Signed miss = 9.00 − (2.391) = 6.609
- Absolute miss = |6.609| = 6.609
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71537, race ID 6244 (538 database).