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2020 Senate · NM

GBAO · fieldwork ended 2020-10-16 (18 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 41%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.73% · Republican 45.62%

D+6.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 41 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.730 − 45.624 = 6.106
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (6.106) = 4.895
  4. Absolute miss = |4.895| = 4.895

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71528, race ID 6288 (538 database).