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2020 President · NM

GBAO · fieldwork ended 2020-10-16 (18 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 41%

D+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.29% · Republican 43.50%

D+10.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 41 = 13.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.289 − 43.497 = 10.792
  3. Signed miss = 13.00 − (10.792) = 2.207
  4. Absolute miss = |2.207| = 2.207

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71528, race ID 6243 (538 database).