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2020 President · FL

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-18 (16 days before the election) · 547 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 45%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.86% · Republican 51.22%

R+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 45 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.861 − 51.220 = -3.359
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (-3.359) = 8.358
  4. Absolute miss = |8.358| = 8.358

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71520, race ID 6220 (538 database).