2020 President · national
Change Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-17 (17 days before the election) · 2,711 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 42%
D+10.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.07% · Republican 46.67%
D+4.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 42 = 10.00
- Actual margin = 51.068 − 46.672 = 4.396
- Signed miss = 10.00 − (4.396) = 5.604
- Absolute miss = |5.604| = 5.604
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71518, race ID 6210 (538 database).