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2020 Senate · TX

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2020-10-18 (16 days before the election) · 600 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text-to-Web · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 40.8% · Republican 48.9%

R+8.1

The certified result

Democrat 43.87% · Republican 53.51%

R+9.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40.8 − 48.9 = -8.10
  2. Actual margin = 43.869 − 53.508 = -9.639
  3. Signed miss = -8.10 − (-9.639) = 1.539
  4. Absolute miss = |1.539| = 1.539

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71458, race ID 6295 (538 database).